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| 灰色模型在岩溶地下水水质预测中的应用研究 |
| Study of Grey Model and Its Application in Karst Groundwater Quality Prediction |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: GM(1,1)模型 岩溶地下水 水质预测 下马头水源地 |
| 英文关键词: GM(1,1) model Karst groundwater Water quality prediction Xiamatou water source |
| 基金项目:山东省地矿局地质勘查科研 “岩溶地下水水质演化机制及趋势预测研究” 基金资助项目（KY201515）；山东省博士后创新专项“基于15N技术的岩溶地下水硝酸盐演化机理研究” 基金资助项目（201502020） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 运用灰色理论建立水质预测模型，通过对水质指标拟合值与实测值差异性分析，判断模型精密度，并预测山东省东阿县下马头水源地未来2年的水质变化趋势，结果表明：在4项水质指标预测模型中，总硬度、氟化物指标的GM(1,1)时间响应预测模型拟合结果较好；溶解性总固体、硝酸盐指标的GM(1,1)时间响应预测模型精密度均为3 级，不适合指标的预测；未来2年下马头水源地岩溶地下水水质良好。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| A water quality prediction model was established by use of grey theory. The accuracy of this model was judged by the difference between fitting values and measured values of water quality index. The model was used to predict the water quality change trend of a drinking water source in Xiamatou，Donge County，Shangdong Province in the next 2 years. The results showed that the index of total hardness and fluorides calculated by GM (1,1) model agreed with real data. Total dissolved solids and nitrate by GM (1,1) model were in accuracy level 3，which was unsuitable for prediction. The karst groundwater quality in Xiamatou will be in good condition in the next 2 years. |
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