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| 上海市雾霾污染物对人群健康影响的统计研究 |
| Statistical Research on the Influence of Haze Contaminants on Population Health in Shanghai |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 雾霾污染 PM25 门急诊量 广义相加模型 上海 |
| 英文关键词: Haze pollution PM25 Outpatient emergency visit Generalized additive model Shanghai |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学“基于大数据关联分析的中国雾霾污染问题统计研究”基金资助项目（15BTJ017） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 通过收集2013—2015年上海市每日雾霾污染物浓度数据、气象监测数据，并统计研究期间就诊于上海市某医院的门急诊量数据，分析PM25浓度与门急诊量的暴露-反应关系，进而研究PM25对人群健康的影响。采用泊松分布的半参数广义相加模型，以医院每日门急诊量为响应变量，通过样条平滑函数控制长期趋势、季节趋势、星期效应和气象因素等混杂因素，拟合PM25浓度与每日门急诊量的暴露-反应关系模型。结果表明，PM25浓度升高会引起医院呼吸内科、心血管内科和皮肤科门急诊量的增加。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| By collecting daily haze pollutant concentration data， the meteorological data， and the outpatient and emergency visits of a hospital in Shanghai from 2013 to 2015， the exposure response relationship between PM2.5 concentration and the outpatient and emergency visits was analyzed， and the impact of PM2.5 on population health was studied. Semi parameter generalized additive model of Poisson distribution was used to control the long term trend， seasonal trend， week effect， meteorological factor and other confounding factors， and fit the exposure response relationship model between PM2.5 concentration and daily outpatient and emergency visits by taking the outpatient and emergency visits as response variables and spline smoothing function. The results showed that the outpatient and emergency visits to respiratory， cardiovascular and dermatology department increased as PM2.5 concentration went up. |
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