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| 基于非参数检验的水质变化趋势分析 |
| Analysis of Water Quality Trends Based on Non parametric Test |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 水质 趋势分析 非参数检验 局部加权回归 东江 |
| 英文关键词: Water quality Trend analysis Non parametric test Local weighted regression Dongjiang river |
| 基金项目:国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项〖JP2〗“东江水质风险监控技术集成与应用示范研究”基金资助项目（2014ZX07206-005-003-001） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 综合应用Mann Kendall（M K）、季节性Kendall(S K)非参数检验方法和局部加权回归散点平滑法（LOWESS）分析东江流域长时间尺度（16 a）和短时间尺度（5 a）水质变化趋势，解析流量与点面源污染对水质指标变化的贡献。结果表明：东江干流DO呈明显下降趋势，TN呈明显上升趋势；二级支流淡水河整治成效显著，水质呈明显改善趋势。流域中上游水体耗氧有机物相对稳定且水平较低，而下游存在较大量耗氧有机物排放。S K检验有利于发现不同月份水情影响下的水质变化，检验出东江干流NH3-N呈明显下降趋势。M K（LOWESS）模型有利于解析各水质指标受上游集雨区汇水过程和点面源污染影响情况。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Mann Kendall test, seasonal Kendall non parametric test and local weighted regression scatter smoothing method (LOWESS) were comprehensively applied to analyze the water quality variation trends of long time scale (16 a) and short time scale (5 a) in Dongjiang river basin, and the contribution of stream flow, point and non point sources pollution to the change of water quality index. The results showed that dissolved oxygen in the main stream of Dongjiang river was obviously decreasing while total nitrogen was obviously increasing. The water quality of the secondary tributary Danshui river was obviously improved after regulation. In the middle and upper reaches of the basin, oxygen consuming organics were 〖JP2〗relatively stable and in low level, but a large amount of oxygen consuming organics were discharged into the lower reaches. Seasonal Kendall test was helpful to find out the water quality change by the hydrologic conditions in different months. It tested out that ammonia nitrogen in the main stream had a significant downward trend.〖JP〗 Mann Kendall(LOWESS) model was helpful to analyze the water quality influenced by the catchment of upstream rainwater, and point and non point sources pollution. |
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