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| 长沙市生态足迹与脱钩效应变化及预测分析 |
| Change and Prediction of Ecological Footprint and Decoupling Effect in Changsha |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 生态足迹 脱钩效应 灰色模型 长沙市 |
| 英文关键词: Ecological footprint Decoupling effect GM(1,1) model Changsha |
| 基金项目:湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(2021JJ60090)；自然资源部南方丘陵区自然资源监测监管重点实验室开放基金资助项目（NRMSSHR2022Y11 ）；国土资源评价与利用湖南省重点实验室开放课题基金资助项目（SYS-ZX-202103）；湖南省教育厅科研基金资助项目（21C1578）；湖南省社会科学成果评审委员会课题基金资助项目（XSP22YBC474） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 用改进的生态足迹因子对长沙市2002—2016年的生态足迹及其脱钩状态进行定量评价，并构建灰色GM(1,1)模型对长沙市生态状况进行预测。结果表明：长沙市生态足迹由期初的8.63×106hm2逐年增加到期末的1.16×107hm2，同期可利用生态承载力由1.99×106hm2逐年增加到2.03×106hm2，生态赤字由-6.65×106 hm2先升后降至-9.58×106hm2；灰色GM(1,1)模型预测得到2030年生态赤字将上升到-1 368.03 hm2。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The improved ecological footprint factor was used to quantitatively evaluate the ecological footprint and decoupling status of Changsha from 2002 to 2016，and the grey GM(1,1)model was constructed to predict the ecological status. The results showed that the ecological footprint of Changsha increased year by year from 8.63×106hm2 at the beginning to 1.16×107hm2 at the end. During the same time，the available ecological carrying capacity increased from 1.99×106hm2 to 2.03×106 hm2 year by year, and the ecological deficit rose first from-6.65×106 hm2 and then fell to -9.58×106 hm2. The GM(1，1) model predicted that the ecological deficit would rise to -1 368.03 hm2 in 2030. |
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