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| 泾河流域生态系统碳储量时空演变与预测 |
| Spatio-temporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Jinghe Basin Ecosystem |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 碳储量 生态系统 PLUS 模型 InVEST 模型 土地利用类型 泾河流域 |
| 英文关键词: Carbon storage Ecosystem PLUS model InVEST model Land use type Jinghe Basin |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学 “生态理性视域下甘南黄河水源补给区草原生态保护农户认知行为与调适机制研究” 基金资助项目（21BJY117） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 运用 InVEST模型和PLUS模型动态模拟泾河流域未来不同发展情景下碳储量变化情况，对当前十年及未来十年土地利用类型变化及其对碳储量的影响进行评估。结果表明：2030年经济发展和生态发展情景下，泾河流域碳储量分别为1.068×109t和1.082×109t，与2020年相比，经济发展情景下碳储量减少9×106t，生态发展情景下碳储量增加5×106t。控制草地、林地、湿地、水域退化和建设用地扩张可以有效提高生态系统碳储量；基于生态发展情景下的土地利用方式更有助于提升泾河流域碳汇能力，实现区域可持续发展。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| InVEST model and PLUS model were used to dynamically simulate the changes of carbon storage in Jinghe Basin under different developments in the future， and evaluate the land use changes and their impact on carbon storage in the current and future decades. The results showed that under economic development and ecological development in 2030， the carbon storage in Jinghe Basin would be 1.068×109 t and 1.082×109 t， respectively. Compared to 2020， the carbon storage would decrease by 9×106 t in economic development， but increase by 5×106 t in ecological development. Controlling the degradation of grasslands， woodlands， wetlands， waters and the expansion of construction land could effectively increase the carbon storage of ecosystems. Land use methods based on ecological development would be more conducive to improving the carbon sink capacity of Jinghe Basin and achieving regional sustainable development. |
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