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| 重庆市生活垃圾处理碳排放及影响因素分析 |
| Research on Carbon Emissions and Influencing Factors of Municipal Solid Waste Disposal in Chongqing |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 碳排放 Kaya恒等式 LMDI分解法 生活垃圾处理 重庆市 |
| 英文关键词: Carbon emission Kaya identity LMDI method Municipal solid waste disposal Chongqing |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学青年基金资助项目（51808080）；重庆市市政环卫监测中心基金资助项目（1372060） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 核算了2007—2021年重庆市生活垃圾处理碳排放量，运用LMDI模型分析了重庆市生活垃圾处理碳排放的影响因素。结果表明：2007—2021年重庆市生活垃圾处理碳排放量表现出先增后降的趋势；经济产出效应、城市化率和常驻人口规模对垃圾处理碳排放始终起正向驱动作用，经济产出效应的驱动作用最大，贡献率达866%；生活垃圾处理结构强度对碳排放具有抑制作用，贡献率达-248%。利用灰色GM（1，1）模型预测出2022—2030年重庆市的垃圾清运量和垃圾处理碳排放量将持续走高。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The carbon emissions of municipal solid waste（MSW） disposal in Chongqing were calculated from 2007 to 2021， and its influencing factors were analyzed by LMDI model. The results showed that from 2007 to 2021， the carbon emissions of municipal solid waste（MSW） disposal in Chongqing increased first and then decreased. Economic output effect， urbanization rate and resident population played a positive driving role on carbon emissions from municipal solid waste disposal. The driving effect of economic output was the largest， with a contribution rate of 86.6%. The structure strength of municipal solid waste disposal had an inhibitory effect on carbon emissions， with a contribution rate of -24.8%. The garbage disposal volume and the carbon emissions in Chongqing would continue to rise from 2022 to 2030 by grey GM（1，1） prediction model. |
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