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| 新疆生产建设兵团农业碳排放变化趋势及影响因素分析 |
| Variation Trend and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Carbon Emission in Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 农业碳排放 变化趋势 影响因素 STIRPAT模型 新疆生产建设兵团 |
| 英文关键词: Agricultural carbon emission Change trend Influencing factor STIRPAT model Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps |
| 基金项目:新疆生产建设兵团重点领域科技攻关计划基金资助项目（2022AB016）；新疆生产建设兵团重大科技基金资助项目（2024AB076） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 通过碳排放因子法测算新疆生产建设兵团2005—2021年农业碳排放量，分析其碳排放强度及变化特征，基于STIRPAT扩展模型分析农业碳排放的影响因素。结果表明，2005—2021年兵团农业碳排放量总体呈“升高〖CD*2〗降低〖CD*2〗升高”的波动上升趋势，碳排放强度呈下降趋势。种植业和畜牧业碳排放分别占农业碳排放总量的5086%和4914%，氮肥是种植业碳排放的主要来源，绵羊和奶牛是畜禽养殖碳排放的主要来源。兵团北部区域相较于南部区域农业碳排放量更大、强度更高，农业减排压力较大。城镇化率和农业机械化水平是兵团农业碳排放的主要驱动因素，而农村人口的增加和产业结构的转型升级则对碳排放产生抑制作用。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In this study， the agricultural carbon emissions in Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps（XPCC） from 2005 to 2021 were calculated by carbon emission factor method， and carbon emission intensity and change characteristics were analyzed. The influencing factors of agricultural carbon emission were studied based on STIRPAT extended model. The results indicated that the agricultural carbon emissions in XPCC showed a fluctuating upward trend of “increasing decreasing increasing” from 2005 to 2021， and carbon emission intensity showed a declining trend. Planting and livestock farming accounted for 5086% and 4914% of total agricultural carbon emissions， respectively. Nitrogen fertilizer was the main source of carbon emission from planting. Sheep and cows were the main sources of carbon emission from livestock farming. Compared with southern Xinjiang of XPCC， northern Xinjiang of XPCC had larger 〖GK!86mm〗agricultural carbon emissions and 〖JP2〗higher intensity， thus facing greater pressure in agricultural emission reduction. Urbanization rate and agricultural mechanization level were the main driving factors for agricultural carbon emissions in XPCC， while rural population growth and the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure inhibited carbon emissions. |
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