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| 基于OWI和天气形势的福州市臭氧预警指标与应用 |
| Ozone Early Warning Index and Its Application in Fuzhou Based on OWI and Weather Conditions |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 臭氧天气指数 天气形势 预警指标 福州市 |
| 英文关键词: Ozone weather index（OWI） Weather condition Early warning index Fuzhou |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学区域联合重点基金资助项目（U22A20578）；福建省自然科学基金资助项目（2021J01453）；福建省省属公益类科研院所基本科研专项基金资助项目（2023R1014003）；福州市科技局社会发展基金资助项目（2023-S-32）；福建省气象科学研究所课题基金资助项目（2023002） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 选取福州市2015—2022年近地面O3和气象要素小时监测数据，采用多元线性回归、标准化归一方法，构建基于天气形势及气象要素的O3天气指数（OWI），预测2023年O3等级，并用实测数据考察预测效果。结果表明：日照时数、日最高气温、相对湿度等标准化气象要素与OWI的相关性最高可达0866；OWI与年均ρ（O3 8 h）呈明显正相关关系（R2=0575），在潜在O3污染天气形势影响下，当春季OWI＞20时，O3污染预警概率为355%，当OWI＞30时，预警概率为412%，当秋季OWI＞30时，预警概率为271%；对2023年O3等级及污染事件进行预报检验，准确率达633%，春季O3污染预报准确率最高，达750%。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Selecting hourly monitoring data of near surface O3 and meteorological factors in Fuzhou from 2015 to 2022， O3 weather Index（OWI） was constructed to predict the O3 level in 2023 by multiple linear regression and standardized normalization method based on weather conditions and the influence of meteorological factors， and the prediction effect was examined with measured data. The results showed that the highest correlation between standardized meteorological factors such as sunshine duration， daily maximum temperature， relative humidity and OWI was up to 0866. OWI was significantly positively correlated with annual average ρ（O3 8 h）（R2=0575）. Under the influence of potential O3 pollution weather condition， when OWI was greater than 20 in spring， the warning probability of O3 pollution was 355%. 〖GK!86mm〗When OWI was greater than 30， the warning probability was 412%. When OWI was greater than 30 in autumn， the warning probability was 271%. The prediction accuracy of O3 pollution levels and pollution events in 2023 reached 633%. The highest accuracy rate of O3 pollution prediction was 750% in spring. |
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