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| 三亚市土地利用空间格局变化多情景模拟研究 |
| Multi scenario Simulation Study on Spatial Changes of Land Use in Sanya |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 土地利用 时空变化 多情景模拟 MOP模型 PLUS模型 三亚市 |
| 英文关键词: Land use Spatiotemporal change Multi scenario simulation MOP model PLUS model Sanya |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（52069006）；海南省重点研发基金资助项目（ZDYF2022SHFZ060）；海南省自然科学高层次人才基金资助项目（421RC489） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 以三亚市为研究区域，分析2000—2020年三亚市土地利用类型变化及其驱动因素，运用多目标规划（MOP）与斑块生成土地利用模拟（PLUS）模型，设置自然发展、生态保护优先和旅游发展优先情景，模拟预测2030年不同情景下土地利用的变化。结果表明：2000—2020年三亚市土地利用类型以林地为主，土地利用变化主要表现为建设用地和水域增加，增加面积分别为11749 km2和1197 km2，其他地类减少。建设用地主要集中在沿海地带，林地主要分布在中北部地区。2030年不同情景下土地利用空间变化在整体上大致相似，在局部地区有明显差异，建设用地在各情景下的扩张尤为显著，DEM在各类土地利用扩张中贡献率相对较高，旅游发展优先情景符合三亚市未来的发展趋势。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Taking Sanya as the research area， this study investigated the changes in land use types and their driving factors from 2000 to 2020. By using multi objective programming (MOP) and patch generating land use simulation (PLUS) models， and setting scenarios of natural development， ecological protection priority and tourism development priority， it simulated and predicted the changes in land use under different scenarios in 2030. The results indicated that forest land was dominant in Sanya from 2000 to 2020. The main changes were the increase of construction land and water area， with the increased areas being 11749 km2 and 1197 km2 respectively， while other land types decreased. The construction land was mainly concentrated in the coastal areas， while the forest land was mainly distributed in the central and northern regions. The spatial changes of land use under different scenarios in 2030 would be roughly similar as a whole， but there would be obvious differences in some local areas. The expansion of construction land would be particularly significant in various scenarios. The contribution of DEM in the expansions of various types of land use was relatively high. The priority scenario for tourism development was in line with the future development trend of Sanya. |
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