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| 城市群能源消费大气污染生态风险评估探究 |
| Ecological Risk Assessment of Air Pollution from Energy Consumption in Urban Agglomerations |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 能源消费 大气污染 生态风险评估 LEAP模型 CMAQ模型 粤闽浙城市群 |
| 英文关键词: Energy consumption Air pollution Ecological risk assessment LEAP model CMAQ model The Guangdong Fujian Zhejiang urban agglomeration |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学青年基金资助项目（32201409）；山西省基础研究计划青年科学研究基金资助项目（202203021222240）；2022年度山西省高等学校科技创新基金资助项目（2022L412）；国家科技部外国专家高端人才引智基金资助项目（G2022019020L） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 以粤闽浙城市群（其中包括10个沿海城市、3个内陆城市）为研究区，基于DPSR模型构建生态风险评估框架，运用LEAP模型构建两种能耗情景预测2018—2030年SO2、NO2、CO、PM10、PM25和VOCs排放，运用CMAQ模型模拟SO2、NO2、CO、PM10、PM25和O3扩散，结合大气污染生态风险评估模型评估生态风险。结果表明：未来节能情景发生概率较大，为76%（Ⅲ级）；污染排放方面，节能情景可有效减缓和降低污染物排放，且到2030年除VOCs外其余污染物空间差异性显著低于基准情景；空间联动性方面，节能情景下沿海与内陆城市群间污染物排放泰尔指数均＜005，仅沿海城市群内部分污染物排放泰尔指数＞005；污染扩散方面，O3秋季浓度高，其余5种污染物为冬季高；生态风险方面，2030年城市群生态风险为高风险，且多为沿海城市。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Taking the Guangdong Fujian Zhejiang urban agglomeration（including 10 coastal cities and 3 inland cities） as the study area， an ecological risk assessment framework was constructed based on the DPSR model， two energy consumption scenarios were developed using the LEAP model to predict the emissions of SO2， NO2， CO， PM10， PM25 and VOCs from 2018 to 2030. The CMAQ model was applied to simulate the diffusion of SO2， NO2， CO， PM10， PM25 and O3， and the ecological 〖GK!87mm〗risk was evaluated using an air pollution ecological risk assessment model. The results indicated that the energy saving scenario would have a high probability of occurrence in the future， at 76%（Level Ⅲ）. In terms of pollution emissions， this scenario effectively mitigated and reduced pollutant emissions. By 2030， the spatial differences of all pollutants except VOCs were significantly lower than those in the 〖HK〗baseline scenario. In terms of spatial linkage， under the energy saving scenario， the Theil index of pollutant emissions between coastal and inland urban agglomerations was all below 005， and only some pollutant emissions within the coastal urban agglomeration had the Theil index exceeding 005. In terms of pollution diffusion， the concentrations of O3 was high in autumn， while the rest were high in winter. In terms of ecological risk， the urban agglomeration was projected to face a high ecological risk by 2030， predominantly in coastal cities. |
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