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| 黄河流域资源型城市生态系统服务价值评估及多情景预测 |
| Assessment and Multi scenario Prediction of Ecosystem Service Value in Resource based Cities in the Yellow River Basin |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 生态系统服务价值 土地利用 PLUS模型 多模式模拟 黄河流域 资源型城市 |
| 英文关键词: Ecosystem service value Land use PLUS model Multi mode simulation Yellow River Basin Resource based city |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（42401384）；教育部人文社会科学基金资助项目（24YJCZH376）；河南省高等学校重点科研基金资助项目（25A170008） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 以黄河流域能源富集的榆林市为例，基于1980—2020年的土地利用特征，结合PLUS模型和当量因子法对榆林市1980—2020年和2030年多种发展模式下的生态系统服务价值（ESV）进行评估和预测。结果表明：榆林市以草地和耕地为主，以2000—2010年的土地变化最为活跃。1980—2020年榆林市ESV总体增加了1983亿元，其中草地对于维持榆林市生态系统稳定性具有重要作用。惯性、城市和综合发展模式下ESV减少，其中城市发展模式下ESV减少最明显，减少了559亿元。耕地和生态发展模式下ESV增加，其中生态发展模式下ESV增加最多，为175亿元。综合来看，未来应选择以生态保护为优先的发展模式，可进一步通过管控城市开发活动、划定生态保护红线、严守耕地红线等实现生态与经济效益的双赢。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Taking Yulin， an energy rich city in the Yellow River Basin， as an example， based on the land use characteristics from 1980 to 2020， the ecosystem service value(ESV) in Yulin was evaluated from 1980 to 2020 and predicted under various development scenarios in 2030 by using the PLUS model and the equivalent factor method. The results showed that Yulin was dominated by grassland and cultivated land. The land use change was the most from 2000 to 2010. From 1980 to 2020， the total ESV in Yulin increased by 1983 billion yuan， with grassland playing an important role in maintaining the stability of the ecosystem. The ESV decreased under the inertia， urban and comprehensive development scenarios， with the most significant reduction of 559 million yuan occurring under the urban development 〖GK!87mm〗scenario. The ESV increased under the cropland and ecological development scenarios， with the most increase of 175 million yuan occurring under the ecological development scenario. Overall， a development model that prioritized ecological protection was recommended for the future. A win win for both ecological and economic benefits could be achieved by 〖HK〗controlling urban development， delineating ecological protection redlines and strictly enforcing cropland redlines. |
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