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| 基于耦合PLUS-InVEST模型的大同市多情景土地利用模拟与碳储量评估 |
| Multi scenario Land Use Simulation and Carbon Storage Assessment in Datong Based on Coupled PLUS InVEST Model |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 碳储量 土地利用变化 PLUS模型 InVEST模型 大同市 |
| 英文关键词: Carbon storage Land use change PLUS model InVEST model Datong |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（72164035）；新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金资助项目（2022D01A85）；新疆维吾尔自治区社会科学基金资助项目（21BGL115） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于2000—2020年大同市土地利用数据，利用InVEST模型测算2000—2020年大同市碳储量变化，再利用PLUS模型分别测算自然发展情景、经济发展情景、耕地保护情景和生态保护情景4个模拟情景下的土地利用变化，最后采用InVEST模型预测2030年4种情景下的碳储量。结果表明：2000—2020年大同市林地和建设用地呈增加趋势，耕地、草地、水域和未利用地均呈下降趋势；2000—2020年总碳储量呈下降趋势，下降了295×106 t，碳储量分布与土地利用空间分布较为一致，碳储量较高区域生态用地面积占比多，建设用地少；4种情景模拟的土地利用分布格局与2020年基本一致，耕地保护情景下耕地面积增加，建设用地面积虽然在4种情景下均增加，但在生态保护和耕地保护情景下的增幅较低；与2020年相比，各情景下碳储量均减少，生态保护情景下降得最少，耕地保护情景下降也较少。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the land use data in Datong from 2000 to 2020， the InVEST model was used to calculate the changes in carbon storage in Datong during this period. Then， the PLUS model was applied to calculate the land use changes in four simulated scenarios， namely natural development， economic development， cultivated land protection and ecological protection. Finally， the InVEST model was adopted to predict the carbon storage under the four scenarios for 2030. The results indicated that from 2000 to 2020， forest land and construction land in Datong showed an increasing trend， while cultivated land， grassland， water area and unused land showed a decreasing trend. Total carbon storage declined by 295×106 t between 2000 and 2020. The distribution of carbon storage was consistent with the spatial distribution of land use. In regions with high carbon storage， the area proportion of ecological land was large and the area proportion of construction land was small. The land use distribution patterns for the four simulated scenarios were basically consistent with those in 2020. Area of cultivated land increased in the cultivated land protection scenario. Although the area of construction land increased under all four scenarios， 〖GK!87mm〗the increase rate was relatively low in ecological protection and cultivated land protection scenarios. Compared with 2020， carbon storage decreased under all scenarios， with the smallest decline in ecological protection scenario and smaller decline in cultivated land protection scenario. |
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