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| “双碳”目标下土地利用碳排放时空演变特征与模拟预测研究 |
| Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics and Simulation Prediction of Carbon Emissions from Land Use towards the “Dual Carbon” Targets |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: “双碳” 土地利用 碳排放 多情景预测 PLUS模型 合肥市 |
| 英文关键词: Carbon peak and carbon neutrality Land use Carbon emissions Multi scenario projection PLUS model Hefei |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（52478050，52008143）；安徽省杰出青年科学基金资助项目（JZ2025AKYQ0560）；安徽省社科规划基金资助项目（AHSKY2024D011） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于2010—2022年合肥市土地利用结构和能源消费数据，分析合肥市的土地利用类型变化特征和碳排放的时空格局，通过预设自然发展、耕地保护、经济发展和低碳导向4类发展情景，综合自然、社会和可达性驱动因素，利用PLUS模型模拟预测2030年碳达峰时期不同情景下合肥市土地利用的空间分布和碳排放的变化趋势。结果表明：合肥市地类面积变化不断加剧，未利用地和城镇村及工矿用地增长最多，动态度分别为355%和283%，林地减少最多，动态度为-625%。净碳排放总体呈现先上升后下降趋势，2020年达到峰值后趋于稳定，2010—2022年整体增幅达362%。2030年4类预测情景下的碳排放量均有所降低，碳排放量表现为经济发展情景＞自然发展情景＞低碳导向情景＞耕地保护情景。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the land use structure and energy consumption data of Hefei from 2010 to 2022， this study analyzed the characteristics of land use change and the spatiotemporal pattern of carbon emissions in Hefei. By presetting four development scenarios (natural development， farmland protection， economic development and low carbon orientation)， and considering natural， social and accessibility driving factors， it utilized the PLUS model to simulate and predict the spatial distribution of land use and the changing trends of carbon emissions in Hefei under different scenarios during the carbon peak period in 2030. The results indicated that the changes in the area of various land types in Hefei were continuously intensifying. Unused land， as well as urban， village， industrial and mining land increased the most， with dynamic degrees of 355% and 283% respectively. Forestland decreased the most， with a dynamic degree of -625%. Net carbon emissions generally showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. It peaked in 2020 and subsequently stabilized， with a total increase of 362% from 2010 to 2022. Carbon emissions would all decrease under the four prediction scenarios in 2030， and would be ranked in descending order as follows： economic development scenario > natural development scenario > low carbon orientation scenario > farmland protection scenario. |
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