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| 长三角城市群土地利用碳排放时空演变特征及多情景模拟 |
| Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics and Multi scenario Simulation of Carbon Emissions from Land Use in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 碳排放 土地利用变化 多情景模拟 Markov-PLUS模型 长三角城市群 |
| 英文关键词: Carbon emissions Land use change 〖JP〗Multiple scenario simulation Markov PLUS model Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学青年基金资助项目（52008001）；安徽省哲学社会科学规划基金资助项目（AHSKQ2020D16）；安徽省高等学校自然科学研究重点基金资助项目（2022AH050244）；安徽省高等学校人文社会科学研究重大基金资助项目（SK2020ZD25） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 以长三角城市群为研究对象，基于2010—2020年土地利用和能耗数据，分析土地利用动态变化、碳排放量时空演变规律及二者的相关性，并且通过构建PLUS模型对3种发展情景进行预测得到2030年的土地利用演变格局和碳排放模拟情况。结果表明：2010—2020年研究区主要用地类型是农田和林地，虽然农田向建设用地转化显著，但增速趋缓；净碳排放量逐年上升，碳排放强度北高南低，空间集聚特征显著。模拟显示，在快速发展情景下，林地面积缩减和建设用地扩张必然会引起碳排放激增，而生态保护情景则更利于碳减排及生态平衡。若未来缺乏对建设用地碳排放的有效管控，则至2030年净碳排放量预计会比2020年高196 063 334 t，碳减排压力依然严峻。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Taking the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration as the research object， this study analyzed the dynamic change in land use， and the spatiotemporal evolution laws of carbon emissions， as well as the correlation between them. Based on land use and energy consumption data from 2010 to 2020， it constructed a PLUS model to predict the simulation of land use evolution patterns and carbon emissions in 2030 under three development scenarios. The results indicated 〖JP3〗cropland and forest 〖JP3〗were the main land use types in the study〖JP〗 〖JP+1〗area from 2010 to 2020. Although cropland converted greatly to construction land， its growth slowed. Net carbon emissions increased year by year. The carbon emission intensity was higher in the north and lower in the south with distinct spatial agglomeration. Simulation results revealed that in the rapid development scenario， 〖JP+2〗the reduction of forest area and the expansion of construction land would inevitably lead to a sharp increase in carbon emissions， while the ecological protection scenario was more conducive to carbon emission reduction and ecological balance. Without effective control 〖GK!87mm〗over carbon emissions from construction land in the future， net carbon emissions 〖JP〗by 2030 were projected to be 196 063 334 t〖JP〗 higher than those in 2020，implying a severe challenge for carbon emission reduction. |
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