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| 济南新旧动能转换起步区土地利用与碳储量时空演变分析 |
| Spatiotemporal Evolution of Land Use and Carbon Storage in the Jinan Start up Area for Growth Drivers Transformation |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 碳储量 土地利用变化 时空演变 InVEST模型 PLUS模型 济南新旧动能转换起步区 |
| 英文关键词: Carbon storage Land use change Spatiotemporal evolution InVEST model PLUS model Jinan Start up Area for Growth Drivers Transformation |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（52208265）；泰山产业领军人才基金资助项目（tscy20231229）；2024年度全国统计科学研究基金资助项目（2024LY024） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于2016—2023年土地利用数据，以济南新旧动能转换起步区为对象，运用InVEST-PLUS耦合模型分析土地利用与碳储量的时空演变，并预测2035年自然发展、经济发展和可持续发展3种情景下土地利用的变化。结果表明，研究期内耕地主要转向林地、水域和建设用地，林地增加主要来源于耕地和建设用地，建设用地扩张主要占用耕地和水域；自然因子交互作用主导生态用地布局，社会经济因子中GDP和道路邻近性驱动耕地缩减与城乡空间重构；林地碳储量显著提升，耕地碳储量减少，反映了城市化与生态保护的矛盾。PLUS模型预测结果显示，2035年3种情景碳储量均低于当前水平，其中自然发展和经济发展情景降幅明显，可持续发展情景通过林地保护和集约用地，将总碳储量下降限制在41680万t，未能实现碳储量增长。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on land use data from 2016 to 2023， taking the Jinan Start up Area for Growth Drivers Transformation as the object， the InVEST PLUS coupled model was used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of land use and carbon storage， and to project land use changes for 2035 under three scenarios: natural development， economic development， and sustainable development. Results showed that farmland mainly converted to forest land， water area， and construction land during the study period. Forest land expansion was primarily driven by the conversion of farmland and construction land， while construction land expansion occurred mainly at the expense of farmland and water area. Interactions among natural factors dominated the spatial distribution of ecological land. Among socioeconomic factors， GDP and proximity to roads drove farmland reduction and urbanrural spatial restructuring. Carbon storage in forest land increased significantly， 〖GK!87mm〗whereas that in farmland decreased， indicating a tradeoff between urbanization and ecological protection. Projection of PLUS model indicated that carbon storage in 2035 would decline under all three scenarios relative to current levels， with marked decreases under the natural and economic development scenarios. Under the sustainable development scenario， forest 〖HK〗protection and intensive land use would limit the decrease in total carbon storage to 416 800 t， yet carbon storage failed to achieve growth. |
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